Evaluation Page for Updated GFS MOS Wind Guidance for the Warm Season
NOTE: Updated Equation were implemented into NCEP Production on June 12, 2012 12Z
MAV and MEX comparisons have been removed
On May 9, 2011, NCEP implemented a "bugfix" to the GFS model that had a significant negative impact
on the GFS MOS wind speed forecasts; mainly in the Western CONUS, within GFS vegetation types 7, 8, 9, and 11 (see map).
Once a sufficient sample was collected,
in this case two years, we were able to redevelop wind equations. The final development sample is
comprised of two years of warm season (April - September) GFS model data. This sample consists of
a mix of pre v9.0.0 model data; pre-bugfix model data (GFS v9.0.0); and post-bugfix model data (GFS v9.0.1). The following list
shows the break down of months and which model was used:
April - June 2010: pre v9.0.0 (operational)
July - September 2010: v9.0.1 (reforecast)
April - May 9, 2011: v9.0.0 (operational)
May 10 - September, 2011: v9.0.1 (operational)
This equates to roughly a 50/50 mix of pre and post "bugfix" model data being used. Verification statistics (to be shown in the near future)
of several different independent test systems have shown that an equally mixed development sample proved to be the more accurate/skillful system.
Impact on Gridded MOS
We have set up a real-time comparison webpage of the experimental 2.5km CONUS Gridded
MOS. The new wind guidance will be used in the operational 5-km CONUS Gridded MOS and Hawaii GMOS. In the Alaska region,
we have retained the previous station-based GFS MOS wind equations for all Alaska METAR sites and for
a few Canadian METAR sites that would influence the Alaska Gridded MOS analysis.
Official NWS Notification
The official NWS Technical Implementation Notice (TIN) has been announced. Click here.
2012 Southwest Weather Workshop - .pptx
Send questions and comments to: MDL_MOS.firstname.lastname@example.org